This story was reported and written by VPM News.
New policies affecting the federal bureaucracy and workforce are set to play a central role in Virginia’s 2025 Democratic primaries, observers told VPM News.
In 2021, almost two-thirds of the primary votes were cast in two areas with heavy concentrations of federal jobs and money: Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads. Almost 90% of Virginia’s Democrats are located in those two regions or Central Virginia.
Sabrina Mattin, the co-president of the Fairfax County Young Democrats, said uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s moves to dramatically shrink the federal government are driving interest in Virginia elections.
“Federal politics are local politics in a sense. We're deeply affected by what happens in D.C.,” said Mattin in an interview Tuesday. “Right now, we're seeing a huge surge in people who want to participate in local politics.”
Eric Claville, a political analyst with Norfolk State University, said Virginia’s off-year elections are a bellwether not just because they happen shortly after a new presidential term begins, but because Virginia feels the effect of federal policy more quickly than other states — unlike states like New Jersey which also have off-year elections.
“The newly sworn-in president has about 180 days to enact policy and to determine whether there is a high degree of popularity or disdain for those policies. Those numbers and those policies trickle down to the commonwealth of Virginia immediately,” said Claville.
The candidates are seemingly aware of Washington’s importance in the primary, too. State Sen. Aaron Rouse (D–Virginia Beach) mentioned Trump and billionaire Elon Musk — who has been overseeing many of the federal cuts through the Department of Government Efficiency — when he announced new fundraising figures. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi (D–Chesterfield) spoke at an anti-Trump protest earlier this month.
Rouse and Hashmi are two of six candidates seeking the Democratic nomination for lieutenant governor. The field also includes former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney; Babur Lateef, chair of the Prince William County School Board; former federal prosecutor Victor Salgado; and union leader Alex Bastani.
Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares will not face a Republican primary in his reelection bid, but two Democrats are vying to challenge him: former Del. Jay Jones (D–Norfolk) and Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor.
In the governor’s race, both candidates — former Democratic U.S. Rep. Abigail Spanberger and Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears — went unchallenged for their party’s nominations.
Marty Cohen, a professor of political science at James Madison University, said federal policies might have an effect on the general election, too.
“As Northern Virginia has crept into Virginia [politics] more and more, that has obviously changed the dynamic of the entire state, and Democrats have become more competitive for that reason,” said Cohen.
The primary is set for June 17. Early voting begins on May 2.
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