This story was reported and written by our media partner Capital News Service.
Generation Z might be at the end of the alphabet, but they are top of mind for campaign strategists, especially with recent polls that don’t clearly favor either presidential candidate.
Gen Z represents a bloc of 40.8 million eligible voters, with 8.3 million recently of voting age, according to the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning at Tufts University. Among the newly eligible voters, 47% are youth of color — a group that historically votes at lower rates than white youth.
People want to know what college-age voters care about, if they are going to show up at the polls, and if they will support the two-party system — in Virginia there are six presidential candidates on the ballot.
Top issues for young voters include reproductive rights, gun control, civil rights and the economy and/or taxes, according to an unofficial VCU Capital News Service survey of college students across the state. There were 101 responses to the survey, which required a .edu address to help verify participants.
The survey
Ninety-six students said they plan to vote, with the majority planning to vote absentee. Five students do not plan to vote, and most said their decision resulted from “ideological disagreements with both candidates.”
A majority of the respondents, or 95%, are ages 18-23, meaning this is the first time many will vote in a presidential election.
Eighty students plan to vote for Democratic nominees Vice President Kamala Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, though only 77 identified as left-leaning.
Ten will vote for Republican nominees former President Donald Trump and Ohio Sen. JD Vance, and 10 identified as right-leaning.
The survey offered 12 top-issue options and an “other” write-in space. Participants were asked to choose their top three issues. Seventy-four percent of students chose reproductive health, 33% chose gun control, and there was a tie between civil rights and the economy and/or taxes, at 30% each.
Early Voting Trends Down
Virginia voters can cast absentee ballots or early vote with no reason required, after House Bill 207, which allowed registered voters to vote absentee with no excuse, was implemented in 2020.
Compared to 2020, early voting is down among all groups, according to Alex Keena, an associate political science professor at Virginia Commonwealth University.
“2020 was kind of an interesting year because turnout spiked for college students,” Keena said. “They really defied expectations by voting in much larger numbers than they had in previous elections.”
Young voters were motivated by the pandemic, the protests after the murder of George Floyd and media coverage of the election, according to Keena.
The Israel-Hamas war is a concern for many college students, and how it might motivate their voting decisions particularly worries the Democratic Party, Keena said.
“It could absolutely sway the election,” Keena said. “Probably not in Virginia, but in some swing states, it’s a big possibility.”
Keena also cited inflation, living costs and climate change as primary issues for young voters. However, climate change isn’t a top issue for many candidates because they seek older voters who vote more frequently and reliably than young voters, according to Keena.
It was “really encouraging” to see how politically engaged college students have been this year, Keena said.
“Even if you don’t agree with the protests, it’s still something that is important for young people,” Keena said. “It’s their way of asserting themselves and their opinions. It’s part of being American.”
Election Forecasts
Harris taking President Joe Biden’s place “reset the race,” but made the election outcome difficult to predict, according to J Miles Coleman of The Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
The Center currently forecasts Harris with 226 electoral college votes and Trump with 219. Seven states could tip the election outcome: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, according to Coleman.
Biden was not the “natural candidate” for young voters in 2020, but “hate” for Trump motivated many voters to vote blue. Harris is better positioned to win young voters’ favor than Biden in 2020, Coleman said.
The gender gap may widen with this election, as younger women often lean Democratic. Young women prefer Harris over Trump by a 37-point margin, and young men are evenly divided at 48% for both candidates, according to a survey from Data for Progress.
The Democratic Party should worry the Israel-Hamas war could push young voters to third-party alternatives, according to Coleman.
“This race is so close that that could make a difference,” Coleman said.
Young voters are motivated to the polls over concerns of abortion access, climate change and the economy, though Coleman said he doubts the turnout will reach the levels of 2020.
“It is, at least in Virginia, about as easy to vote as it has ever been,” Coleman said. “I would definitely encourage everyone, especially students, to take advantage of that.”
What Students Say
Elliott McCarthy, age 21, is a third-year psychology student at VCU. He is registered and plans to vote in the upcoming election because “it’s not a complicated thing.”
“If you’re given the opportunity to have even the slightest say in any of that, I don’t know why you wouldn’t,” McCarthy said.
McCarthy does not identify as a Democrat but as left, and being transgender is a large factor in his plan to vote for Harris.
“I hate we’re still in a situation where it feels like you’re voting for the lesser of two evils,” McCarthy said.
To vote third party instead of for Harris is a “cop-out,” according to McCarthy.
“It’s going to contribute to Trump winning,” he said. “So I can’t willingly see myself voting third party knowing that that’s the alternative.”
The top issues on McCarthy’s mind are Project 2025 and transgender rights.
Project 2025 is a proposed presidential transition initiative from the conservative Heritage Foundation. It includes a policy guide for the next administration and states, “married men and women are the ideal, natural family structure,” according to CBS News.
The Israel-Hamas war is also important, but there are national issues that are “really urgent that we need to handle,” according to McCarthy.
Blake Darmante, age 21, is a third-year English student at the Virginia Military Institute. He is registered and plans to vote for Trump and Vance, but said “things can always change” before Election Day. Regardless, neither is his “ideal candidate.”
He is “somewhere between middle and right” on the political spectrum and does his best to read news from both sides, Darmante said.
The economy is a large influence on his voting decisions, he said. He grew up in a low-income family and helped raise his four younger siblings. Military strength is also important to him, and under conservative candidates, the military will see “strong and meaningful growth.”
“I feel more at peace and better knowing that the conservative candidates are a little more focused on implementing policies and structures for our soldiers going off to war,” Darmante said.
Homira Koraganie, age 19, is a second-year UVA computer science student. She is registered and plans to vote via absentee ballot.
Koraganie did a “blue ballot,” and voted for all Democrat or Democrat-endorsed candidates because of concerns over reproductive rights, she said.
This was her first vote cast in a presidential election.
“It feels special knowing that my voice is actually being heard,” Koraganie said.
Despite concern for the Israel-Hamas war, she said voting third-party is not a good solution, because it will take more than one election cycle to change the two-party system. It would take a constitutional overhaul.
“I don’t want to shut someone down for what they believe,” Koraganie said. “I just think they need to take in all the different sides of it.”
There is a genocide taking place in Gaza, she said, but third-party votes “allow more folks to go to people like Donald Trump.”
“We have to think about the bigger picture and understand that a single vote for the third party isn’t going to do much,” Koraganie said.
The last day to vote early is Saturday, Nov. 2. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5. Polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. and same-day registration is available.
Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.
