This story was reported and written by our media partner Capital News Service.
Democrats are heavily courting Black voters but the question remains whether the outreach will propel the party’s candidate to victory on Election Day.
Polls show that while Black voters are more likely to trust Vice President Kamala Harris than former President Donald Trump to best handle issues important to them, Trump has made inroads among younger Black male voters under 50.
Among that age group, 26% back Trump and 49% back Harris, according to a September NAACP poll conducted in partnership with HIT Strategies and Hart Research.
Black men over 50 support Harris in larger numbers, at 77%.
The survey concluded that 86% of all Black voters over the age of 50 support Harris, and enthusiasm for the candidate matches that of former President Barack Obama.
About 68% of all Black voters, male and female, between the ages of 18 and 49 support Harris.
Pastor Questions Democratic Policies
Bishop E.W. Jackson, a Black Republican and Chesapeake-based pastor, is encouraged by numbers that show Black voters may be loosening their “attachment” to the Democratic Party.
Jackson, the 2013 Republican nominee for Virginia lieutenant governor, has continually called poverty, violence and family breakdown in the inner cities a direct result of Democratic policies. These include welfare programs established by President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1935 that made Black people dependent on government handouts, Jackson said.
More recent policies include some recent Democrat opposition to school choice, which could help Black families move their children from poorly performing public schools to better-performing charter or private schools, he said.
“I’ve been victimized by policies that have served to decimate the Black community rather than elevate,” he said.
Jackson, who was briefly a 2024 Republican candidate for president, supports Trump and is working to get Black voters to the polls through his STAND PAC, or Staying True to America’s National Destiny. He predicts Trump may get 20% of the overall Black vote.
Jackson called out Republicans for failing to properly woo Black voters and for not having a compelling message on issues that disproportionately affect Blacks, such as abortion, which Jackson is against.
“Black people are 13% of the population of America,” Jackson said. “But 36% of the abortions performed in America are performed on Black people.”
The Guttmacher Institute, a research and policy nonprofit for reproductive rights, reported a similar statistic in 2004, but the data changed over 20 years. There were similar proportions of people who received an abortion from June 2021 to July 2022: Black women accounted for 29%, Latine women 30% and non-Hispanic white women 30%. Four percent were Asian and 7% identified as another race or ethnicity or as more than one race, according to the data.
“I try to tell Republicans that if you don’t make a concerted effort to reach out, you can forget it because you’re up against years of tradition and years of sort of emotional indoctrination, that says, ‘you guys are a bunch of racists,’” Jackson said.
Both Major Parties Vie for Black Votes
Some eastern Henrico County residents in majority-Black neighborhoods like Central Gardens report recent pro-Republican outreach in the form of a “MAGA 2024” door hanger. While the source is unknown, but claims no association with Trump’s campaign, it features snippets of Trump’s speeches to communicate the former president does not support racism and claims Harris would ban menthol cigarettes.
The flyer directs readers to a website with more details but does not mention the economy or health care, issues Black voters consider as most important. Black female voters are more likely than male Black voters to consider abortion and gun policy when deciding how to vote, according to an Oct. 8 AP-NORC survey of 1,777 registered voters, including 477 Black participants. The margin of error for the Black respondents surveyed is plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.
Aaron Fritschner, Harris for President Virginia communications director, did not offer a specific response when presented with Jackson’s statements. He referred to comments Harris made during a recent interview with commentator Roland Martin on his “Unfiltered” show, including an outline of policies that are “going to have a profound impact on Black folks.”
Henrico Board of Supervisors Chairman Tyrone E. Nelson believes Black men of all ages will vote to support the Harris-Walz ticket.
“Republicans want you to believe that Black men’s support is waning, but Black men care about their community and the women that they are connected to,” Nelson stated.
Nelson, who represents the Varina District and is pastor of Sixth Mount Zion Baptist Church in Richmond, said he has faith that Black men will show up for Harris.
“The Harris-Walz message toward Black men including forgivable loans for entrepreneurs, health care initiatives for Black men, decreasing inflation and providing down payment assistance is resonating,” he stated.
While Black voter enthusiasm is better for Harris than it was for Biden earlier this year, some Democrats have anxiety, especially since Harris faces a series of firsts. Among them, Harris is the first woman of color at the top of a major party’s presidential ticket and the first presidential candidate to have only three months to campaign.
“If you’re not nervous, you’re not paying attention,” Democratic strategist Jamal Simmons recently told The Hill.
Democrats have ramped-up efforts to persuade Black voters to turn out for Harris as they did in 2008, when 95% voted for former President Barack Obama, the country’s first Black president.
Efforts include the Harris Opportunity Agenda for Black Men, touted as a way to help them build wealth and protect their rights.
Obama joined the campaign trail on Oct. 8 and cautioned Black males “who seem to think Trump’s behavior, the bullying, and the putting people down is a sign of strength.” Obama later drew criticism from those on social media, including Virginia Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, who felt he was lecturing adults free to make their choices.
On Oct. 27, Obama was among speakers who joined a Win With Black Men live virtual discussion on how to increase turnout, improve voter protection and decrease election misinformation. Attendees were representatives of several organizations, including the NAACP, that make up a “movement dedicated to politically empowering and uplifting Black men.”
Obama said Trump has shown utter disrespect and disregard for Black communities and for Black men, specifically throughout Trump’s career.
“This is going to be a very tight election, said Obama. “It shouldn’t be this close because the candidates are not comparable.”
History of Black Voter Turnout
Both major parties believe voter turnout will determine who wins the presidency. White voter turnout in 2020 was 70.9% compared to a median 58.4% for Black, Asian and Latino voters, according to the Brennan Center.
Turnout among eligible Black voters in presidential elections between 1964 and 2020 fluctuated between 48% and 62%, according to Statista. The highest turnouts were in 2008 and 2012, when Obama was on the ballot.
Voter turnout has always been lowest among those under 25, according to the data. But younger Black voters participated in high numbers in the 1960s, at the height of the Civil Rights Movement, and again in 2008, when they also participated in higher numbers than white voters of the same age.
Lamon Turner, a 20-year-old Black male who lives in Richmond, doesn’t think either major party candidate is fit to be president, but he’d vote for Trump over Harris because of gender, experience and survival instincts after two assassination attempts, he said.
“We never had a female president,” Turner said, adding that having the first female president would be “crazy” and could lead to “a lot of riots” because “people would not be happy.”
“[Trump’s] already been president and he didn’t die, so I feel like, why not let him?” Turner said.
The last day to early vote is Nov. 2. The election is Tuesday, Nov. 5, and polls are open from 6 a.m. to 7 p.m. Read more about the candidate stances on vcucns.com.
Capital News Service is a program of Virginia Commonwealth University’s Robertson School of Media and Culture. Students in the program provide state government coverage for a variety of media outlets in Virginia.
