This story was reported and written by our media partner the Virginia Mercury.
Longtime incumbent U.S. Rep. Rob Wittman, R-Westmoreland, has served the 1st Congressional District since 2007. But this year’s Democratic challenger, Leslie Mehta, might make him work harder to win. She thinks she can flip the seat.
“The thing with Rob Whitman is that he’s never had a real challenge,” said Chaz Nuttycombe, founder of the State Navigate and CNalysis political forecasting organizations.
Though Wittman has had challengers each time he’s run to hold onto his seat representing Virginia’s 1st Congressional District, he’s typically won re-election with large margins between himself and his usually-democratic challengers.
After a redrawing of the congressional maps in 2021 incorporated some Richmond-area suburbs into the district — which tend to lean Democrat — previous challenger Herb Jones lost by 13%. Wittman’s margins have typically ranged between 20 and nearly 50%. In 2018 — fresh off 2017’s “Blue Wave” in the state legislature — Democrat Lavangelene Aereka Williams lost by 10.5%.
As Whitman now faces Mehta, a lawyer and healthcare advocate, Nuttycombe suspects that margin could be further reduced to single-digits.
“I can see Wittman having a single-digit reelection, which would be the first time that’s ever happened, because the district is getting bluer,” he said.
The district, which is anchored by Virginia’s peninsula and some coastal areas, also wraps around Richmond in Chesterfield and Henrico counties before sprawling south towards Petersburg.
And though CNalysis and the Virginia Public Access Project both rate it as leaning Republican, Mehta’s campaign might be making Wittman and Republicans work a little harder this year to keep him in Congress.
Mehta — who received the endorsement of Rep. Abigail Spanberger, D-Prince William, early on in the election cycle and over Jones, who’d run again but lost to Metha in their primary — believes she might be able to win.
Spanberger is one of the most bipartisan members of Congress, and Mehta plans to legislate in that fashion.
Spanberger, who is vying for the Democratic nomination for governor next year, backed Mehta after they had connected over a congressional effort to secure more medical research funding in an appropriations bill. The fight was personal for Mehta, whose oldest daughter suffered a rare genetic disorder before her death. Mehta has since gone on to be appointed by Republican Gov. Glenn Younkgin to serve on Virginia’s Rare Disease Council.
Mehta’s goal of bipartisanship and her passion for healthcare policy is why she believes she can appeal to voters. Healthcare affordability and access are issues she said she hears from canvassing and campaign events around the district.
“In some of the rural parts of the district it can take 45 minutes to get to a maternal ward, or the fact that some doctors and other health care providers are just not providing or don’t have enough availability for Medicaid and Medicare patients because the reimbursements are so low,” she said. “People have to find other care providers, or it might take a long time to get into their preferred health care provider — that’s not really access.”
Mehta has been supportive of Democratic legislation to help with healthcare affordability and access like the Affordable Care Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, but she said there is still “more work to do.”
In contrast, Wittman has supported repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act, also dubbed “Obamacare.” Though he has not always supported his party’s proposals that could do so, and he has voted against the Inflation Reduction Act.
Perhaps another boon for her candidacy, Mehta suspects, is her promise to help codify abortion and other reproductive health protections into federal law. This contrasts with Wittman having voted to restrict federal funding for Planned Parenthood and having co-sponsored a Life At Conception Act in Congress. Mehta pointed to how the legislation had no mention of exceptions for abortions in instances where someone was a victim of rape or incest, their life was threatened by the pregnancy, or severe fetal anomalies.
“We know that (abortion access) is not just a concern for Democrats,” she said. “But there are lots of Republicans in the district who are very concerned about his extreme stance.”
Wittman’s campaign did not respond to interview requests. His congressional website mentions him being “pro-life,” and having a “role to protect the lives of the unborn,” without alluding to the word “abortion.”
In a bipartisan fashion, some Republican-leaning states have protected access to the procedure in the years since federal protections were overturned. Democratic congressional candidates promise to restore federal protections, while many Republicans have backed off pushing for federal bans or limits.
On other healthcare matters, Wittman’s campaign website underscores his past experience working in the Virginia Department of Health before going into politics.
While a hallmark of the Inflation Reduction Act has involved ongoing efforts to reduce prescription drug costs — a goal of Wittman’s — he defended opposing that particular legislation overall.
“We cannot tax and spend our way out of inflation, which remains the top problem our nation is facing,” he wrote in a statement from 2022.
Despite some metrics showing support for Wittman’s re-election, other factors point to efforts to shore up his support, just in case.
His fundraising from this year is double that of Mehta’s, and the Young Republican Federation of Virginia has included Wittman in a series of canvassing events this month that include Derrick Anderson, the Republican nominee in the 7th District, and Rep. Jen Kiggans, R-Virginia Beach, the incumbent in the 2nd District
Kiggans and Anderson are each running in more competitive congressional districts that could help determine which party will control the U.S. House of Representatives.
The canvas event for Wittman will take place in Henrico County. Wrapping around Richmond’s west, east and north sides, the locality has been trending bluer in recent years, backing Democrat Terry McAuliffe for governor in 2021, and Democrats have gained majorities in the local government last year.
Nuttycombe, of CNalysis, also suspects a strong base will turn out for Vice President Kamala Harris in York County and will likely to also vote for Mehta. Still, a large portion of the district includes Virginia’s peninsula — an area with Democratic pockets but that is overall broadly Republican-leaning.
