AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Faith Kipyegon is fast, as in really, really fast. In 2023, the Kenyan middle-distance runner set three world records, including a blistering 4 minutes, 7 seconds in the mile.
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UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: The world record is 4:12.33. She is going to shatter the world record on this track in Monaco.
CHANG: That race inspired a new study in Royal Society Open Science that predicts Kipyegon could become the first woman to break 4 minutes if she gets a little help. NPR's Jonathan Lambert has more.
JONATHAN LAMBERT, BYLINE: The 4-minute mile is a mythic barrier in distance running. People thought that it was physiologically impossible to run that fast until Roger Bannister ran 3:59 in 1954. Kipyegon is still a ways away from sub-4, but something about the race stuck out to University of Colorado Boulder bio mechanist Rodger Kram.
RODGER KRAM: The runners who were her pacemakers ran out too fast, and there was a gap between her and her pacemakers.
LAMBERT: Pacemakers are runners who help other racers set a fast pace before dropping out themselves. Crucially, they also make the race easier for runners by acting as a barrier to the wind, but only if they stay close.
KRAM: She really had pretty poor aerodynamic drafting when she broke the record. That got us thinking that maybe if we improved the drafting and reducing the force that the air exerts to slow you down, whether she could break 4 minutes.
LAMBERT: To figure out how much faster Kipyegon could run, the team first calculated how much energy she burned running 4:07. Then they used aerodynamic modeling to see how much faster she would have run with better drafting, says Shalaya Kipp, now at the Mayo Clinic.
SHALAYA KIPP: We looked at different scenarios, you know, where she had two laps of drafting, three laps of drafting, you know? And what if, you know, we found some way to do four laps of drafting?
LAMBERT: Running the numbers, one result stuck out to Kram.
KRAM: To have the number 3:59.37 come up on my screen when I was doing the simulation, and then say, gee, that's exactly the same time as Roger Bannister ran.
LAMBERT: That time required a pacer to run about 3 feet ahead of Kipyegon for the whole race. It also required a pacer just behind her, which provided a slight push of air. Since no woman is faster than Kipyegon, new pacers would have to be subbed in mid-race. That would disqualify the time as an official record, says James Smoliga, a physiologist at Tufts University.
JAMES SMOLIGA: It's always going to have an asterisk next to it because it's not a sanctioned race. It's a little bit artificial. But it shows the capability of - you know, the physiological capability of the human body.
LAMBERT: But he cautions that things would still have to be perfect to actually pull this off.
SMOLIGA: These studies are based on assumptions on top of assumptions on top of assumptions. It really is the very best-case scenario.
LAMBERT: Still, pacing has extra benefits that this study can't capture, says Kipp, who herself ran in the 2012 Olympics.
KIPP: You don't have to really think about the pace that you're running. You're just sitting on this person, and they're pulling you through.
LAMBERT: Kram and Kipp would love to see their thought experiment put to the test by Kipyegon and some pacers on a track.
KIPP: You're not only watching this one phenomenal female athlete. Instead, you're also watching you know, what a group of female athletes can do when they all work together.
LAMBERT: Kipyegon told NPR that she found the study interesting but is focused on training for the upcoming season. As a track fan, I hope that someday she makes a run for it.
Jonathan Lambert, NPR News.
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